Jesper De Jong vs Sebastian Baez — Bastad Round of 16

Bastad · ATP · Round of 16
Jesper De Jong
NED
Jesper De Jong
#106ATP
1711ELO
1696Clay ELO
$612kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 16 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTRE COURT · 4th on
Sebastian Baez
ARG8
Sebastian Baez
#53ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWL
De Jong J.
4-6 2-6
Baez S.
De Jong J.
420
Baez S.
662

Sebastian Baez advanced to the quarterfinals at Bastad by defeating Jesper De Jong 6-4, 6-2 in the Round of 16. Baez did not hit an ace but converted 75% of his break points, securing three service breaks in the match. De Jong hit four aces but was unable to capitalize on any of his break point opportunities.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2020-01-24M15 Monastir 3QFhardSebastian Baez2-6 6-3 6-3

Statistics

This season
De Jong J.Baez S.
1st serve in·Clear edge
59%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
61%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Even
60%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.9
1.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.3
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
De Jong J.Baez S.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
36
75
Break points saved·Slight edge
80
86
Break points won·Dominant
19
77
Deciding sets·Dominant
61
90
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
41
64

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
De Jong J.44%
Baez S.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Jong J.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Baez S.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Clay Elo 1696
Surface ELO
5.3+22 Clay Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1711
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1759
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.98 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
10.010 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
De Jong J.Baez S.
Freshness·Clear edge
92
73

De Jong J.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Baez S.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
24°CMainly clear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 66%

Draw