Francesca Jones vs Federica UrgesiRome Round of 16

Rome · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#104WTA
1619ELO
1621Clay ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ·
clay
#282WTA
1546ELO
1532Clay ELO
21 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWLW
Jones F.
2-6 6-4 6-1
Urgesi F.
Jones F.
2662
Urgesi F.
6411

Francesca Jones defeated Federica Urgesi in the Rome Round of 16, 2-6, 6-4, 6-1. Jones served 2 aces and committed 4 double faults, while Urgesi had 4 aces and 6 double faults. Jones won 67% of her first serves and converted 42% of break points, compared to Urgesi's 57% and 36%, respectively; Jones secured 5 service breaks to Urgesi's 4.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
69%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
46%
Service points won·Even
55%
56%
Return points won·Even
46%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
50%
Aces / match·Even
1.6
2.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.6
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Jones F.75%
Urgesi F.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jones F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+89 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Clay Elo 1532
5.9Overall Elo 1619
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1546
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.25 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.98 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
100

Jones F.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
35°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw