August Holmgren vs Aidan Mayo — Granby Round of 16

Granby · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
DEN3
August Holmgren
#226ATP
1566ELO
1517Hard ELO
$132kYTD
$648kCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 4 · 3rd on
USAPR
Aidan Mayo
#616ATP
1380ELO
1359Hard ELO
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWLWW
Holmgren A.
7-6 6-2
Mayo A.
Holmgren A.
7762
Mayo A.
6420

August Holmgren defeated Aidan Mayo in the Round of 16 at the Granby hard-court tournament, winning 7-6, 6-2. Holmgren hit 4 aces and 4 double faults, while Mayo had 7 aces and 5 double faults. Holmgren converted 33% of break points and won 2 service breaks to Mayo's 0.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Holmgren A.Mayo A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.0
4.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.5
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Holmgren A.Mayo A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
43
12
Break points saved·Clear edge
90
68
Break points won·Even
0
1
Deciding sets·Dominant
46
7
Tiebreaks·Dominant
96
52

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Holmgren A.73%
Mayo A.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Holmgren A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Holmgren A.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Mayo A.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.0+158 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 1359
7.3Overall Elo 1566
ELO gap
2.7Overall Elo 1380
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.48 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.75 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Holmgren A.Mayo A.
Freshness·
—
85

Mayo A.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
25°CMainly clear
Wind 25 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw