Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaUmag Round of 16

Umag · ATP · Round of 16
#91ATP
1627ELO
1621Clay ELO
$400kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
36 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 1 · 2nd on
#27ATP
1893ELO
1813Clay ELO
$1.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Trungelliti M.
4-6 5-7
Davidovich Fokina A.
Trungelliti M.
450
Davidovich Fokina A.
672

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina defeated Marco Trungelliti in the Round of 16 at the Umag tournament on clay, winning 6-4, 7-5. Davidovich Fokina hit 5 aces and did not commit a double fault, while Trungelliti had 3 of each. Davidovich Fokina converted 56% of his break points and broke Trungelliti's serve 5 times en route to the victory.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-08-30US OpenR128hardMarco Trungelliti5-7 6-3 7-5 6-7 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
70%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
56%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Even
38%
36%
Break points saved·Even
66%
66%
Aces / match·Even
4.6
4.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.9
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
23
87
Break points saved·Clear edge
78
96
Break points won·Dominant
25
94
Deciding sets·Dominant
43
90
Tiebreaks·Dominant
11
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Trungelliti M.18%
Davidovich Fokina A.82%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Davidovich Fokina A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
2.6Clay Elo 1621
Surface ELO
7.4+192 Clay Elo edge
1.7Overall Elo 1627
ELO gap
8.3Overall Elo 1893
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
6.16 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.85 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Surface transition
3.0Grass → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
66

Trungelliti M.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 111 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
30°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 57%

Draw