Yuta Shimizu vs Justin BoulaisGranby Round of 16

Granby · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#393ATP
1446ELO
1417Hard ELO
27 yrs · 163 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT CENTRAL · 1st on
#398ATP
1352ELO
1326Hard ELO
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWLWLLW
Shimizu Y.
5-7 1-6
Boulais J.
Shimizu Y.
510
Boulais J.
762

Justin Boulais defeated Yuta Shimizu in the Round of 16 at the Granby hard-court tournament, winning 7-5, 6-1. Boulais served four aces to Shimizu's zero and converted four service breaks to Shimizu's one. Boulais won 74% of his first-serve points to Shimizu's 65%, and converted 44% of his break points to Shimizu's 50%.

Key context

  • Match story: Justin Boulais came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–5 6–1.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
65%
Aces / match·Even
4.4
4.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
22
5
Break points saved·Clear edge
65
50
Break points won·Even
9
5
Deciding sets·Clear edge
27
13
Tiebreaks·Dominant
59
33

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Shimizu Y.63%
Boulais J.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Shimizu Y. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+91 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1326
6.2Overall Elo 1446
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1352
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.97 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.47 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
100

Boulais J.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
25°CMainly clear
Wind 22 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw