Nuno Borges vs Grigor Dimitrov — Bastad Round of 16

Bastad · ATP · Round of 16
Nuno Borges
POR5
Nuno Borges
#47ATP
1769ELO
1726Clay ELO
$811kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTRE COURT · 2nd on
Grigor Dimitrov
BULWC
Grigor Dimitrov
#138ATP
1744ELO
1647Clay ELO
$329kYTD
$32MCAREER
35 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Borges N.
6-4 6-2
Dimitrov G.
Borges N.
662
Dimitrov G.
420

Nuno Borges defeated Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at Bastad. Borges converted 80% of his break points and secured four service breaks to Dimitrov's one. Borges also had a higher first-serve win percentage and more aces than Dimitrov in the match.

Key context

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersR64hardGrigor Dimitrov6-3 6-4
2024-01-15Australian OpenR32hardNuno Borges6-7 6-4 6-2 7-6

Statistics

This season
Borges N.Dimitrov G.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
66%
65%
Return points won·Even
35%
34%
Break points saved·Clear edge
65%
51%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.5
8.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Borges N.Dimitrov G.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
57
86
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
98
Break points won·Dominant
23
64
Deciding sets·Slight edge
92
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
48
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Borges N.59%
Dimitrov G.41%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Borges N. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Borges N.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Dimitrov G.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.0+78 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Clay Elo 1647
5.3Overall Elo 1769
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1744
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
5.55 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
1.51 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Borges N.Dimitrov G.
Freshness·Dominant
62
89

Borges N.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 77 games (7d) · Dimitrov G.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw