Federico Agustin Gomez vs Matteo Arnaldi — Umag Round of 16

Umag · ATP · Round of 16
ARGQ
Federico Agustin Gomez
#181ATP
1445ELO
1410Clay ELO
$29kYTD
$680kCAREER
29 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ·
clay
GORAN IVANISEVIC STADIUM STUDENAC ARENA · 1st on
Matteo Arnaldi
ITA4
Matteo Arnaldi
#34ATP
1830ELO
1830Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWW
Gomez F.
3-6 7-5 3-6
Arnaldi M.
Gomez F.
3731
Arnaldi M.
6562

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Federico Agustin Gomez in the Round of 16 at the Umag tournament on clay, winning 6-3, 5-7, 6-3. Arnaldi hit 7 aces and 1 double fault, while Gomez hit 3 aces and 6 double faults. Arnaldi won the match with 4 service breaks to Gomez's 2.

Key context

  • Match story: Matteo Arnaldi closed it out in three sets, 6–3 5–7 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Gomez F.Arnaldi M.
1st serve in·Even
63%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
62%
61%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Even
61%
62%
Aces / match·Even
5.6
5.3
Double faults / match·Even
3.8
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Gomez F.Arnaldi M.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
36
54
Break points saved·Clear edge
82
95
Break points won·Even
18
22
Deciding sets·Even
62
58
Tiebreaks·Dominant
16
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Gomez F.11%
Arnaldi M.89%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Arnaldi M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gomez F.
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Arnaldi M.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
0.0Clay Elo 1410
Surface ELO
10.0+420 Clay Elo edge
0.2Overall Elo 1445
ELO gap
9.8Overall Elo 1830
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.85 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
9.19 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
3.0Grass → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Gomez F.Arnaldi M.
Freshness·Even
82
80

Gomez F.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 58 games (7d) · Arnaldi M.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
31°CPartly cloudy
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 52%

Draw