Erika Andreeva vs Mia Ristic — Kitzbuhel Round of 16

Kitzbuhel · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
RUS
Erika Andreeva
#214WTA
1553ELO
1503Clay ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ·
clay
SRB
Mia Ristic
#219WTA
1504ELO
1479Clay ELO
20 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWW
Andreeva E.
6-4 2-6 6-2
Ristic M.
Andreeva E.
6262
Ristic M.
4621

Erika Andreeva defeated Mia Ristic in the Round of 16 at the Kitzbuhel tournament on clay, winning 6-4, 2-6, 6-2. Andreeva hit 8 aces to Ristic's 1 and converted 100% of her break points, compared to Ristic's 25%. Andreeva won 3 service breaks to Ristic's 2.

Key context

  • Match story: Erika Andreeva closed it out in three sets, 6–4 2–6 6–2.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Andreeva E.Ristic M.
1st serve in·Even
64%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
53%
Service points won·Even
56%
59%
Return points won·Even
46%
45%
Break points saved·Even
52%
56%
Aces / match·Even
1.8
1.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.0
1.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Andreeva E.Ristic M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
65
19
Break points saved·Clear edge
56
35
Break points won·Dominant
86
54
Deciding sets·Dominant
77
45
Tiebreaks·
92
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Andreeva E.66%
Ristic M.34%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Andreeva E. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Andreeva E.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Ristic M.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.3+24 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Clay Elo 1479
5.6Overall Elo 1553
ELO gap
4.4Overall Elo 1504
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.56 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.55 of last 10 on clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Andreeva E.Ristic M.
Freshness·
—
100

Ristic M.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
24°CMainly clear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw