Darya Astakhova vs Noma Noha AkugueRome Round of 16

Rome · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#231WTA
1511ELO
1505Clay ELO
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLLWLWL
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ·
clay
#141WTA
1624ELO
1550Clay ELO
22 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLLLW
Astakhova D.
7-5 2-6 3-6
Noha Akugue N.
Astakhova D.
7231
Noha Akugue N.
5662

Noma Noha Akugue defeated Darya Astakhova 5-7, 6-2, 6-3 in the Round of 16 at the Rome tournament. Akugue hit 5 aces to Astakhova's 1 and converted 75% of her break points, compared to Astakhova's 37%. Akugue won 9 service breaks to Astakhova's 7.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
55%
60%
Return points won·Even
50%
46%
Break points saved·Even
53%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.0
2.7
Double faults / match·Even
2.8
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
76
57
Break points saved·Dominant
55
80
Break points won·Clear edge
97
84
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
35
Tiebreaks·
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Astakhova D.25%
Noha Akugue N.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Noha Akugue N. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4Clay Elo 1505
Surface ELO
5.6+45 Clay Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1511
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1624
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.87 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
97

Noha Akugue N.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
35°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw