Maria Timofeeva vs Ann Li — Athens Round of 32

Athens · WTA · Round of 32
Maria Timofeeva
UZB
Maria Timofeeva
#96WTA
1696ELO
1608Hard ELO
22 yrs · 167 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 14 July 2026 ·
hard
Ann Li
USA2
Ann Li
#29WTA
1807ELO
1746Hard ELO
$837kYTD
$3.9MCAREER
26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLLLLWW
Timofeeva M.
2-6 1-6
Li A.
Timofeeva M.
210
Li A.
662

Ann Li defeated Maria Timofeeva 6-2, 6-1 in the Round of 32 of the Athens hard-court tournament. Li converted 42% of her break points and secured five service breaks, while Timofeeva was unable to capitalize on any break point opportunities. Li also served more effectively, hitting three aces to Timofeeva's zero and committing one double fault to Timofeeva's four.

Key context

Head to head

0–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-19RabatR32clayAnn Li7-6 6-2
2025-01-27SingaporeR16hardAnn Li6-3 6-2
2024-10-11W100 Cornella de Llobregat 1QFhardAnn Li4-3

Statistics

This season
Timofeeva M.Li A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
44%
Service points won·Even
57%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
49%
41%
Break points saved·Even
55%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.9
5.5
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Timofeeva M.Li A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
54
45
Break points saved·Dominant
76
27
Break points won·Clear edge
96
79
Deciding sets·Slight edge
59
70
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
20
36

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Timofeeva M.33%
Li A.67%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Li A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Timofeeva M.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Li A.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Hard Elo 1608
Surface ELO
6.7+138 Hard Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1696
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1806
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
4.75 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.54 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Timofeeva M.Li A.
Freshness·Slight edge
96
85

Timofeeva M.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 9 games (7d) · Li A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw