Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Andrea PellegrinoBastad Round of 32

Bastad · ATP · Round of 32
#155ATP
1620ELO
1582Clay ELO
$293kYTD
$747kCAREER
19 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWWLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 14 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTRE COURT · 1st on
#135ATP
1674ELO
1654Clay ELO
$320kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWLWL
Budkov Kjaer N.
3-6 2-6
Pellegrino A.
Budkov Kjaer N.
320
Pellegrino A.
662

Andrea Pellegrino defeated Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 6-3, 6-2 in the Round of 32 at Bastad. Pellegrino converted 80% of his break points and won 75% of his first-serve points to secure the win. He won four service breaks to Kjaer's one.

Around the match

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
55%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Even
60%
61%
Aces / match·Even
4.0
3.6
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
67
55
Break points saved·Slight edge
78
67
Break points won·Even
39
35
Deciding sets·Clear edge
96
82
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
81
73

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Budkov Kjaer N.47%
Pellegrino A.53%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Clay Elo 1582
Surface ELO
5.9+71 Clay Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1620
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1674
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.66 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.67 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
84
100

Budkov Kjaer N.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Pellegrino A.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 75%

Draw