August Holmgren vs Yosuke WatanukiGranby Round of 32

Granby · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#226ATP
1566ELO
1517Hard ELO
$132kYTD
$648kCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 14 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 4 · 2nd on
#416ATP
1541ELO
1531Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWLLL
Holmgren A.
6-7 6-4 7-5
Watanuki Y.
Holmgren A.
66672
Watanuki Y.
78451

August Holmgren defeated Yosuke Watanuki in the Round of 32 at the Granby hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-7, 6-4, 7-5 in favor of Holmgren. He converted 17% of break points and secured one service break to edge out Watanuki.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-30WimbledonQ3grassAugust Holmgren6-4 6-7 3-6 7-6 7-6
2025-06-26WimbledonQ32grassAugust Holmgren6-4 6-7(2) 3-6 7-6(11) 7-6(7)

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
52%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
59%
Return points won·Even
34%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
67%
48%
Aces / match·Slight edge
8.0
6.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.5
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
43
16
Break points saved·Clear edge
90
70
Break points won·Even
0
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
46
11
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
96
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Holmgren A.57%
Watanuki Y.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Hard Elo 1517
Surface ELO
5.2+14 Hard Elo edge
5.3Overall Elo 1566
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1540
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
7.88 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.76 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
100

Holmgren A.: 20 days rest · Watanuki Y.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw