Luca Castelnuovo vs Antoine GhibaudoPozoblanco Round of 32

Pozoblanco · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#452ATP
1176ELO
1166Hard ELO
29 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLWLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 14 July 2026 ·
hard
PISTA 3 · 1st on
#341ATP
1475ELO
1402Hard ELO
21 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLLLLL
Castelnuovo L.
5-7 4-6
Ghibaudo A.
Castelnuovo L.
540
Ghibaudo A.
762

Antoine Ghibaudo defeated Luca Castelnuovo in the Round of 32 at the Pozoblanco hard-court tournament, winning 7-5, 6-4. Ghibaudo and Castelnuovo were even in aces and double faults, but Ghibaudo converted a higher percentage of break points and won two more service breaks. The win advanced Ghibaudo to the next round.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
62%
Return points won·Even
36%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
53%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.2
3.2
Double faults / match·Even
2.8
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (9 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Castelnuovo L.20%
Ghibaudo A.80%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Ghibaudo A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.0Hard Elo 1166
Surface ELO
8.0+236 Hard Elo edge
1.3Overall Elo 1176
ELO gap
8.7Overall Elo 1475
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.43 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
91

Ghibaudo A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
24°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 43%

Draw