Matej Dodig vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Umag Round of 32

Umag · ATP · Round of 32
CROWC
Matej Dodig
#251ATP
1461ELO
1430Clay ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 14 July 2026 ·
clay
GORAN IVANISEVIC STADIUM STUDENAC ARENA · 1st on
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP
Pablo Carreno Busta
#72ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLLWLW
Dodig M.
4-6 2-6
Carreno Busta P.
Dodig M.
420
Carreno Busta P.
662

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Matej Dodig in the Round of 32 at the Umag tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 6-2 in favor of Carreno Busta.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Dodig M.Carreno Busta P.
1st serve in·Even
67%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
54%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Even
58%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.9
3.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.3
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Dodig M.Carreno Busta P.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
33
46
Break points saved·Clear edge
76
93
Break points won·Dominant
3
60
Deciding sets·Dominant
47
14
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
65
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Dodig M.18%
Carreno Busta P.82%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Carreno Busta P. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Dodig M.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Carreno Busta P.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
0.8Clay Elo 1430
Surface ELO
9.2+337 Clay Elo edge
0.8Overall Elo 1461
ELO gap
9.2Overall Elo 1800
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.16 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.88 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Surface transition
3.0Grass → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Dodig M.Carreno Busta P.
Freshness·Slight edge
76
81

Dodig M.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 57 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 55%

Draw