Varvara Lepchenko vs Alevtina IbragimovaIasi Qualifying Final

Iasi · WTA · Qualifying Final
#184WTA
1578ELO
1533Clay ELO
40 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 13 July 2026 ·
clay
#218WTA
1508ELO
1472Clay ELO
21 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Lepchenko V.
3-6 4-6
Ibragimova A.
Lepchenko V.
340
Ibragimova A.
662

Alevtina Ibragimova won the final of the Iasi clay tournament, defeating Varvara Lepchenko 6-3, 6-4. Ibragimova hit one ace and one double fault, winning 68% of her first serves and converting 75% of her break points. She converted six service breaks to Lepchenko's four.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
70%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
45%
Service points won·Even
55%
54%
Return points won·Even
44%
48%
Break points saved·Even
55%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.1
1.3
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Lepchenko V.50%
Ibragimova A.50%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.8+61 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Clay Elo 1472
5.9Overall Elo 1578
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1508
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
6.16 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.25 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
95
100

Lepchenko V.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Ibragimova A.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw