Jesper De Jong vs Vilius Gaubas — Bastad Round of 32

Bastad · ATP · Round of 32
Jesper De Jong
NED
Jesper De Jong
#106ATP
1711ELO
1696Clay ELO
$612kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 13 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTRE COURT · 3rd on
LTU
Vilius Gaubas
#123ATP
1581ELO
1535Clay ELO
$279kYTD
$763kCAREER
21 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLLWLW
De Jong J.
7-6 7-5
Gaubas V.
De Jong J.
772
Gaubas V.
650

Jesper De Jong defeated Vilius Gaubas in the Round of 32 at Bastad, winning 7-6, 7-5 on clay. De Jong hit 15 aces to Gaubas' 8 and won 81% of his first-serve points, compared to Gaubas' 69%. De Jong secured 2 service breaks to Gaubas' 1, advancing in the tournament.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-18US OpenQ128hardJesper De Jong6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
De Jong J.Gaubas V.
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
60%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.6
3.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.3
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
De Jong J.Gaubas V.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
36
57
Break points saved·Slight edge
80
87
Break points won·Dominant
19
52
Deciding sets·Dominant
61
86
Tiebreaks·Dominant
41
8

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
De Jong J.67%
Gaubas V.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · De Jong J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Jong J.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Gaubas V.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+161 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Clay Elo 1535
6.6Overall Elo 1711
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1581
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
7.68 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
2.83 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
De Jong J.Gaubas V.
Freshness·Clear edge
85
100

De Jong J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Gaubas V.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 78%

Draw