Jannik Sinner vs Alexander ZverevWimbledon Final

Wimbledon · ATP · Final
#1ATP
2320ELO
2088Grass ELO
$6.9MYTD
$65MCAREER
25 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWLWW
3 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 12 July 2026 ·
grass
Centre Court · 2nd on
#3ATP
2100ELO
1914Grass ELO
$6.5MYTD
$66MCAREER
29 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWWL
Sinner J.
6-7 7-6 6-3 6-4
Zverev A.
Sinner J.
67663
Zverev A.
76341

Jannik Sinner won the Wimbledon final, defeating Alexander Zverev 6-7, 7-6, 6-3, 6-4. Sinner converted 40% of his break points and secured two service breaks, compared to none for Zverev. Sinner won 81% of his first-serve points, while Zverev won 72%.

Around the match

  • Sasha, you reached one of your goals, winning a Grand Slam in Paris. Today you were so close. If you play like this, I'm very sure you're going to have this one at home too.

  • Jannik, I don't really like you anymore. I lost to you 9 times in a row. Jannik showed once again why he's the best player in the world. It's a great honor to be here. Unfortunately it didn't go my way.

  • Zverev suffered a right knee injury during the third set when falling while chasing a drop shot, affecting his serve and mobility for the remainder of the match.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

94
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-22Madrid MastersFclayJannik Sinner6-1 6-2
2026-04-05Monte Carlo MastersSFclayJannik Sinner6-1 6-4
2026-03-18Miami MastersSFhardJannik Sinner6-3 7-6
2025-11-09Tour FinalsRRhardJannik Sinner6-4 6-3
2025-10-27Paris MastersSFhardJannik Sinner6-0 6-1
2025-10-20ViennaFhardJannik Sinner3-6 6-3 7-5
2025-01-13Australian OpenFhardJannik Sinner6-3 7-6 6-3
2024-08-12Cincinnati MastersSFhardJannik Sinner7-6 5-7 7-6
2023-08-28US OpenR16hardAlexander Zverev6-4 3-6 6-2 4-6 6-3
2022-04-11Monte Carlo MastersQFclayAlexander Zverev5-7 6-3 7-6
2021-08-30US OpenR16hardAlexander Zverev6-4 6-4 7-6
2020-10-19Cologne 2SFhardAlexander Zverev7-6 6-3
2020-09-28Roland GarrosR16clayJannik Sinner6-3 6-3 4-6 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
72%
1st serve points won·Even
81%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
58%
59%
Service points won·Even
73%
72%
Return points won·Even
41%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
70%
59%
Aces / match·Even
10.4
10.0
Double faults / match·Even
1.6
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 49). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
99
93
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Slight edge
99
89
Deciding sets·Even
100
99
Tiebreaks·Even
100
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Sinner J.88%
Zverev A.12%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sinner J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.0
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.2+175 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Grass Elo 1914
7.8Overall Elo 2320
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 2100
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
10.010 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.29 of last 10 on grass
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.06 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.06 three-setters in 14 days
6.9Won 82% in United Kingdom (33)
Country comfort
6.3Won 71% in United Kingdom (31)
Context
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
71

Zverev A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 34%

Draw