Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo — Umag Qualifying Final

Umag · ATP · Qualifying Final
AUT2
Lukas Neumayer
#171ATP
1621ELO
1598Clay ELO
$136kYTD
$576kCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 12 July 2026 ·
clay
Court 4 · 1st on
GER
Marko Topo
#338ATP
1463ELO
1399Clay ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLLW
Neumayer L.
6-7 5-7
Topo M.
Neumayer L.
650
Topo M.
772

Marko Topo won the Umag final on clay, defeating Lukas Neumayer 7-6, 7-5. Topo hit 7 aces to Neumayer's 2 and had a 65% first-serve win percentage, compared to Neumayer's 53%. Topo converted 43% of break points and won 6 service breaks to Neumayer's 5.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-12UmagQFclayMarko Topo7-6(7) 7-5

Statistics

This season
Neumayer L.Topo M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
43%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
55%
Return points won·Even
39%
36%
Break points saved·Clear edge
61%
49%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.9
4.2
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Neumayer L.Topo M.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
40
28
Break points saved·Clear edge
71
87
Break points won·Dominant
62
4
Deciding sets·Even
11
12
Tiebreaks·Even
86
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Neumayer L.80%
Topo M.20%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Neumayer L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Neumayer L.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Topo M.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.5+200 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.5Clay Elo 1399
7.0Overall Elo 1621
ELO gap
3.0Overall Elo 1463
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.77 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Neumayer L.Topo M.
Freshness·Slight edge
89
100

Neumayer L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 6 games (7d) · Topo M.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 63%

Draw