Nicolas Mejia vs Matias Soto — Bogota Final

Bogota · CHALLENGER · Final
Nicolas Mejia
COL1
Nicolas Mejia
#122ATP
1477ELO
1488Clay ELO
$142kYTD
$524kCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 12 July 2026 ·
clay
Court 1 · 1st on
CHI3
Matias Soto
#262ATP
1421ELO
1412Clay ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Mejia N.
6-1 7-5
Soto M.
Mejia N.
672
Soto M.
150

Nicolas Mejia won the Bogota final on clay, defeating Matias Soto 6-1, 7-5. Mejia hit 6 aces and 1 double fault, while Soto hit 2 aces and 8 double faults. Mejia converted 33% of break points and broke Soto's serve 5 times, compared to Soto's 2 service breaks.

Key context

  • Match story: Nicolas Mejia came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 7–5.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Mejia N.Soto M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
50%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
57%
Aces / match·Even
5.0
4.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Mejia N.Soto M.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
26
34
Break points saved·Clear edge
74
51
Break points won·Slight edge
6
14
Deciding sets·Dominant
40
69
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
38
56

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Mejia N.65%
Soto M.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mejia N. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mejia N.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Soto M.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.0+76 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Clay Elo 1412
5.7Overall Elo 1477
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1421
7.8Leads 2–0 on clay
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on clay
5.95 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.57 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Mejia N.Soto M.
Freshness·Slight edge
85
96

Mejia N.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Soto M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
16°CDrizzle
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 64%

Draw