Francesco Passaro vs Maks KasnikowskiBastad Qualifying Semi-final

Bastad · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
#222ATP
1592ELO
1578Clay ELO
$91kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 12 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 3 · 2nd on
#234ATP
1400ELO
1418Clay ELO
23 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLWW
Passaro F.
6-1 3-6 6-3
Kasnikowski M.
Passaro F.
6362
Kasnikowski M.
1631

Francesco Passaro defeated Maks Kasnikowski in the Bastad semifinals, advancing with a 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 victory. Passaro converted 60% of his break points and secured three service breaks to Kasnikowski's one. The win sets Passaro up for the final.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
56%
Service points won·Even
62%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points saved·Even
63%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.3
4.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
57
14
Break points saved·Dominant
89
56
Break points won·Slight edge
11
16
Deciding sets·Dominant
81
19
Tiebreaks·Dominant
84
38

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Passaro F.76%
Kasnikowski M.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Passaro F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+161 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Clay Elo 1418
7.4Overall Elo 1592
ELO gap
2.6Overall Elo 1400
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
3.43 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
85
97

Passaro F.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d) · Kasnikowski M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 65%

Draw