Jacob Fearnley vs Adam WaltonNewport Final

Newport · CHALLENGER · Final
#107ATP
1600ELO
1546Grass ELO
$342kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 12 July 2026 ·
grass
#98ATP
1703ELO
1565Grass ELO
$531kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLWWW
Fearnley J.
5-7 7-6 6-4
Walton A.
Fearnley J.
5762
Walton A.
7641

Jacob Fearnley won the final of the Newport grass-court tournament, defeating Adam Walton 5-7, 7-6, 6-4. The two players had similar service statistics, with Fearnley recording 5 aces and 6 double faults, compared to Walton's 6 aces and 7 double faults. Both players converted 6 service breaks, but Fearnley won more points on his first serve, at 69%, compared to Walton's 63%.

Around the match

  • You can see why it was a Tour event. The facilities are unreal. The crowd, the atmosphere, the tournament staff – everything is unreal.

  • I love playing in America. It's probably the most comfortable I feel.

  • Fearnley mounted a determined comeback from 4-2 down in the third set, winning the final four games to advance to his fifth career final.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
54%
Service points won·Even
60%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.9
6.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.8
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 39). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
85
40
Break points saved·Even
96
92
Break points won·Dominant
70
8
Deciding sets·Clear edge
99
87
Tiebreaks·Dominant
83
2

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Fearnley J.30%
Walton A.70%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Walton A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.8Grass Elo 1546
Surface ELO
5.2+19 Grass Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1600
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1703
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.57 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.57 of last 10 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
90
64

Fearnley J.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Walton A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 71 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
27°CMainly clear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw