Matej Dodig vs Hugo DellienTrieste Final

Trieste · CHALLENGER · Final
#251ATP
1461ELO
1430Clay ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 12 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#141ATP
1637ELO
1624Clay ELO
$236kYTD
$3.2MCAREER
33 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWLWWW
Dodig M.
7-5 4-6 2-6
Dellien H.
Dodig M.
7421
Dellien H.
5662

Hugo Dellien won the final of the Trieste tournament on clay, defeating Matej Dodig 5-7, 6-4, 6-2. Dellien hit 3 aces and committed 0 double faults, while Dodig had 6 aces and 5 double faults. Dellien converted 38% of break points and broke Dodig's serve 5 times, compared to Dodig's 3 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-20Roland GarrosSFclayHugo Dellien1-6 4-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
70%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points saved·Even
58%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.8
2.7
Double faults / match·Even
1.4
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
33
21
Break points saved·Slight edge
76
69
Break points won·Even
3
7
Deciding sets·Clear edge
47
66
Tiebreaks·Dominant
65
2

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Dodig M.28%
Dellien H.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Dellien H. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.6Clay Elo 1430
Surface ELO
7.4+194 Clay Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1461
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1637
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
6.86 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
81
96

Dodig M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 41 games (7d) · Dellien H.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
29°CMainly clear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw