Jan Choinski vs Hugo GastonBraunschweig Final

Braunschweig · CHALLENGER · Final
#77ATP
1686ELO
1652Clay ELO
$265kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 12 July 2026 ·
clay
TENZER CENTER COURT · 2nd on
#97ATP
1622ELO
1566Clay ELO
$376kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
Choinski J.
4-6 6-0 6-4
Gaston H.
Choinski J.
4662
Gaston H.
6041

Jan Choinski won the Braunschweig final on clay, defeating Hugo Gaston 4-6, 6-0, 6-4. Choinski hit 7 aces to Gaston's 4 and converted 60% of his break points, compared to Gaston's 50%. Choinski secured 6 service breaks to Gaston's 3 en route to the title.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
53%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.7
2.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
55
57
Break points saved·Even
90
87
Break points won·Clear edge
20
35
Deciding sets·Clear edge
87
72
Tiebreaks·Dominant
41
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Choinski J.64%
Gaston H.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Choinski J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.1+86 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Clay Elo 1566
5.8Overall Elo 1686
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1622
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.77 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.86 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
84
91

Choinski J.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 39 games (7d) · Gaston H.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 42%

Draw