Marco Cecchinato vs Genaro Alberto OlivieriUmag Qualifying Final

Umag · ATP · Qualifying Final
#173ATP
1576ELO
1546Clay ELO
$167kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 12 July 2026 ·
clay
STUDENAC ARENA COURT 1 · 1st on
#225ATP
1489ELO
1464Clay ELO
28 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLLLW
Cecchinato M.
6-2 6-4
Olivieri G.
Cecchinato M.
662
Olivieri G.
240

Marco Cecchinato won the Umag final, defeating Genaro Alberto Olivieri 6-2, 6-4. Cecchinato served effectively, winning 91% of his first-serve points and converting three of six break points en route to victory. He hit one ace and one double fault, compared to Olivieri's zero aces and one double fault.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
64%
77%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
59%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
57%
Return points won·Even
37%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.1
1.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
1.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
39
26
Break points saved·Dominant
79
24
Break points won·Slight edge
13
20
Deciding sets·Slight edge
59
67
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
72
63

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Cecchinato M.64%
Olivieri G.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Cecchinato M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.0+82 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Clay Elo 1464
6.1Overall Elo 1576
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1489
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
7.27 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
75
100

Cecchinato M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d) · Olivieri G.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 64%

Draw