Lukas Neumayer vs Mili PoljicakUmag Qualifying Semi-final

Umag · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
#171ATP
1621ELO
1598Clay ELO
$136kYTD
$576kCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
clay
STUDENAC ARENA COURT 1 · 2nd on
#264ATP
1471ELO
1442Clay ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWWL
Neumayer L.
6-4 4-6 6-4
Poljicak M.
Neumayer L.
6462
Poljicak M.
4641

Lukas Neumayer defeated Mili Poljicak in the semifinals of the Umag tournament on clay, winning 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. Neumayer hit one ace and committed two double faults, while Poljicak had 12 aces and five double faults. Neumayer converted 43% of break points and broke Poljicak's serve three times, compared to Poljicak's two service breaks.

Key context

  • Match story: Lukas Neumayer edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 4–6 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
63%
Return points won·Even
39%
43%
Break points saved·Even
60%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.0
4.4
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
40
23
Break points saved·Slight edge
71
77
Break points won·Dominant
62
7
Deciding sets·Even
11
13
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
86
69

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Neumayer L.75%
Poljicak M.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Neumayer L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+157 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Clay Elo 1442
6.9Overall Elo 1621
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1471
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
6.37 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.84 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
89
100

Neumayer L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 6 games (7d) · Poljicak M.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
28°CMainly clear
Wind 29 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw