Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova — Wimbledon Final

Wimbledon · WTA · Final
Karolina Muchova
CZE10
Karolina Muchova
#7WTA
2066ELO
1852Grass ELO
$4.5MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
grass
Centre Court · 2nd on
Linda Noskova
CZE9
Linda Noskova
#8WTA
1976ELO
1844Grass ELO
$6.2MYTD
$11MCAREER
21 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWWW
Muchova K.
2-6 7-5 3-6
Noskova L.
Muchova K.
2731
Noskova L.
6562

Linda Noskova defeated Karolina Muchova in the Wimbledon final, winning 6-2, 5-7, 6-3. Noskova hit 8 aces to Muchova's 5 and converted 31% of her break points compared to Muchova's 13%. Noskova won 72% of her first-serve points to Muchova's 62%, and she broke Muchova's serve 4 times to Muchova's 2.

Around the match

  • “It feels incredible. All these matches have been so tough, physically and mentally – and today especially, Karolina, you really made me work.”

    Noskova L.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “You're so young, and the way you handled it, the way you played it, was really unbelievable. Beyond that, you are a very kind person and human being.”

    Muchova K.tennismajors.com ↗

  • Muchova confirms her return to top form with a career-high ranking following recovery from wrist surgery that had sidelined her.

    Muchova K.tennismajors.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Linda Noskova closed it out in three sets, 6–2 5–7 6–3.

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-25US OpenR32hardKarolina Muchova6-7 6-4 6-2

Statistics

This season
Muchova K.Noskova L.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
44%
41%
Break points saved·Even
62%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.4
6.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Muchova K.Noskova L.
Clutch Rating·Even
92
92
Break points saved·Slight edge
91
86
Break points won·Even
88
89
Deciding sets·Even
97
94
Tiebreaks·Even
99
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Muchova K.56%
Noskova L.44%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Muchova K.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Noskova L.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.1+7 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Grass Elo 1844
6.1Overall Elo 2066
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1976
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
10.010 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.29 of last 10 on grass
10.010-match win streak
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
6.2Won 70% in United Kingdom (23)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Muchova K.Noskova L.
Freshness·
—
81

Noskova L.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 35%

Draw