Adam Walton vs Alex Michelsen — Newport Semi-final

Newport · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
Adam Walton
AUS4
Adam Walton
#98ATP
1703ELO
1565Grass ELO
$531kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLLWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
grass
Alex Michelsen
USA2
Alex Michelsen
#41ATP
1825ELO
1710Grass ELO
$797kYTD
$4.7MCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
Walton A.
7-6 6-4
Michelsen A.
Walton A.
762
Michelsen A.
640

Adam Walton defeated Alex Michelsen in the semifinals of the Newport grass-court tournament, winning 7-6, 6-4. Walton served 2 aces and committed 0 double faults, while Michelsen had 5 aces and 7 double faults. Walton converted 36% of break points and won 4 service breaks to Michelsen's 3.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Walton A.Michelsen A.
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
65%
Return points won·Even
35%
37%
Break points saved·Even
63%
63%
Aces / match·Even
6.7
6.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.3
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Walton A.Michelsen A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
41
62
Break points saved·Even
92
92
Break points won·Clear edge
8
32
Deciding sets·Slight edge
90
80
Tiebreaks·Dominant
2
82

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Walton A.22%
Michelsen A.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Michelsen A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Walton A.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Michelsen A.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.2Grass Elo 1565
Surface ELO
6.8+145 Grass Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1703
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1825
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.66 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Walton A.Michelsen A.
Freshness·Slight edge
81
76

Walton A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Michelsen A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw