Luca Nardi vs Andrea Guerrieri — Umag Qualifying Semi-final

Umag · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
ITA1
Luca Nardi
#168ATP
1585ELO
1537Clay ELO
$213kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
23 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 2 · 1st on
ITA
Andrea Guerrieri
#189ATP
1545ELO
1510Clay ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLL
Nardi L.
3-6 6-7
Guerrieri A.
Nardi L.
360
Guerrieri A.
672

Andrea Guerrieri advanced to the Umag semifinals by defeating Luca Nardi 6-3, 7-6. Guerrieri converted 40% of his break points and secured four service breaks en route to the win. He hit 0 aces and 6 double faults, compared to Nardi's 2 aces and 7 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Nardi L.Guerrieri A.
1st serve in·Even
63%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
45%
Service points won·Even
62%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
38%
44%
Break points saved·Even
63%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.9
1.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.3
4.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Nardi L.Guerrieri A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
9
62
Break points saved·Even
84
80
Break points won·Dominant
8
40
Deciding sets·Dominant
14
84
Tiebreaks·
14
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Nardi L.61%
Guerrieri A.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Nardi L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nardi L.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Guerrieri A.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.3+27 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Clay Elo 1510
5.5Overall Elo 1585
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1545
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.56 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.76 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Nardi L.Guerrieri A.
Freshness·
—
55

Guerrieri A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
30°CPartly cloudy
Wind 26 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw