Matej Dodig vs Henri Squire — Trieste Semi-final

Trieste · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
CRO6
Matej Dodig
#251ATP
1461ELO
1430Clay ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
GER
Henri Squire
#208ATP
1511ELO
1490Clay ELO
25 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLWWLW
Dodig M.
6-4 3-6 6-3
Squire H.
Dodig M.
6362
Squire H.
4631

Matej Dodig defeated Henri Squire in the semifinals of the Trieste tournament on clay, winning 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. Dodig and Squire served an equal number of aces, eight each, but Dodig committed fewer double faults, four to seven. Dodig won the match with a higher first-serve win percentage and one more service break than Squire.

Key context

  • Match story: Matej Dodig closed it out in three sets, 6–4 3–6 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Dodig M.Squire H.
1st serve in·Even
66%
70%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
46%
Service points won·Even
62%
62%
Return points won·Even
36%
37%
Break points saved·Even
58%
60%
Aces / match·Even
4.8
5.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.4
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Dodig M.Squire H.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
33
40
Break points saved·Slight edge
76
87
Break points won·Slight edge
3
12
Deciding sets·Clear edge
47
65
Tiebreaks·Dominant
65
33

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Dodig M.44%
Squire H.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Dodig M.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Squire H.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.2Clay Elo 1430
Surface ELO
5.8+61 Clay Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1461
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1511
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.56 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Dodig M.Squire H.
Freshness·Clear edge
76
94

Dodig M.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 57 games (7d) · Squire H.: 11 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
30°CMainly clear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 38%

Draw