Simona Waltert vs Paula BadosaBastad Final

Bastad · CHALLENGER · Final
#87WTA
1670ELO
1654Clay ELO
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
clay
#84WTA
1780ELO
1684Clay ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWWW
Waltert S.
5-7 5-7
Badosa P.
Waltert S.
550
Badosa P.
772

Paula Badosa won the Bastad final, defeating Simona Waltert 7-5, 7-5. Badosa hit 3 aces and 6 double faults, while winning 77% of her first-serve points and converting all of her break points. She converted 4 service breaks to Waltert's 2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
55%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
41%
Service points won·Even
56%
56%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Even
56%
54%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.6
4.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
7.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
90
Break points saved·Slight edge
79
84
Break points won·Even
94
95
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
93
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
85
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Waltert S.36%
Badosa P.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Badosa P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.6Clay Elo 1654
Surface ELO
5.4+30 Clay Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1670
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1780
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.06 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
81

Waltert S.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
26°CPartly cloudy
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 53%

Draw