Lucrezia Stefanini vs Tatjana Maria — Newport Quarter-final

Newport · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
Lucrezia Stefanini
ITA5
Lucrezia Stefanini
#142WTA
1527ELO
1492Grass ELO
28 yrs · 164 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 10 July 2026 ·
grass
Tatjana Maria
GER2
Tatjana Maria
#80WTA
1703ELO
1688Grass ELO
39 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWW
Stefanini L.
1-6 0-6
Maria T.
Stefanini L.
100
Maria T.
662

Tatjana Maria defeated Lucrezia Stefanini in the quarterfinals of the Newport grass tournament, winning 6-1, 6-0. Maria converted 60% of her break points and won six service breaks to Stefanini's one. Stefanini converted 100% of her break points but struggled with her first-serve win percentage at 22%.

Key context

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-01-16Australian OpenR128hardLucrezia Stefanini3-6 7-5 6-4
2019-10-23W80 PoitiersR32hardTatjana Maria6-4 6-4

Statistics

This season
Stefanini L.Maria T.
1st serve in·Clear edge
76%
59%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
55%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
52%
58%
Return points won·Even
47%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
57%
Aces / match·Dominant
0.7
4.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.3
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Stefanini L.Maria T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
32
2
Break points saved·Clear edge
26
4
Break points won·Dominant
96
70
Deciding sets·Dominant
60
3
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
19
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Stefanini L.18%
Maria T.82%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Maria T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Stefanini L.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Maria T.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.5Grass Elo 1492
Surface ELO
7.5+196 Grass Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1527
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1702
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.97 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Stefanini L.Maria T.
Freshness·Slight edge
84
90

Stefanini L.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 44 games (7d) · Maria T.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
31°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw