Yi Zhou vs Alastair GrayNottingham 4 Quarter-final

Nottingham 4 · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#244ATP
1456ELO
1459Grass ELO
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 10 July 2026 ·
grass
CENTRE COURT · 1st on
#270ATP
1390ELO
1345Grass ELO
28 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWWLLL
Zhou Y.
3-6 4-6
Gray A.
Zhou Y.
340
Gray A.
662

Alastair Gray defeated Yi Zhou in the quarterfinals of the Nottingham 4 grass tournament. Gray won the match 6-3, 6-4. In the match, Gray hit 2 aces and 1 double fault, while Zhou hit 5 aces and 3 double faults; Gray converted 27% of break points and broke Zhou's serve 3 times, while Zhou converted 25% of break points and broke Gray's serve once.

Key context

  • Match story: Alastair Gray closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
68%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.3
7.4
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
13
15
Break points saved·Even
87
85
Break points won·Slight edge
13
2
Deciding sets·Clear edge
1
13
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
14
20

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Zhou Y.72%
Gray A.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Zhou Y. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.4+114 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Grass Elo 1345
5.8Overall Elo 1456
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1390
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.88 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
100
82

Zhou Y.: 21 days rest · Gray A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
28°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw