Hugo Gaston vs Marvin MoellerBraunschweig Quarter-final

Braunschweig · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#97ATP
1622ELO
1566Clay ELO
$376kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 10 July 2026 ·
clay
TENZER CENTER COURT · 3rd on
#327ATP
1396ELO
1383Clay ELO
27 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWW
Gaston H.
6-2 6-4
Moeller M.
Gaston H.
662
Moeller M.
240

Hugo Gaston advanced to the semifinals of the Braunschweig quarterfinals by defeating Marvin Moeller 6-2, 6-4. Gaston converted 44% of his break points and won 89% of his first-serve points, while Moeller converted 14% of his break points and won 71% of his first-serve points. Gaston had 3 aces and 2 double faults, while Moeller had 4 aces and 4 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
53%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
60%
64%
Return points won·Even
40%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.5
4.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
57
48
Break points saved·Dominant
87
43
Break points won·Slight edge
35
44
Deciding sets·Even
72
73
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
81
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Gaston H.77%
Moeller M.23%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Gaston H. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.3+183 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.7Clay Elo 1383
7.8Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 1396
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.55 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
9.39 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
9.07-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
91
53

Gaston H.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d) · Moeller M.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 107 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw