Juan Pablo Varillas vs Matheus Pucinelli De AlmeidaBogota Quarter-final

Bogota · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#236ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 10 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 1 · 2nd on
#281ATP
1412ELO
1404Clay ELO
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWLWWWW
Varillas J.
6-3 7-6
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
Varillas J.
672
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
360

Juan Pablo Varillas defeated Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the Bogota quarterfinals, winning 6-3, 7-6. Varillas converted all three of his break points, while Pucinelli De Almeida converted one of six. Varillas won the match with three service breaks to Pucinelli De Almeida's one.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
60%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
48%
Break points saved·Even
59%
55%
Aces / match·Even
2.7
2.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
31
5
Break points saved·Dominant
68
36
Break points won·Even
45
43
Deciding sets·Dominant
44
11
Tiebreaks·Dominant
29
1

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Varillas J.50%
Pucinelli De Almeida M.50%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.3+27 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Clay Elo 1404
5.3Overall Elo 1440
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1412
5.2Split 1–1 on clay
H2H
4.8Split 1–1 on clay
4.64 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
9.39 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
9.07-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
100
59

Varillas J.: 18 days rest · Pucinelli De Almeida M.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 91 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
19°CDrizzle
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 54%

Draw