Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Niels McdonaldBraunschweig Quarter-final

Braunschweig · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#87ATP
1681ELO
1668Clay ELO
$294kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 10 July 2026 ·
clay
TENZER CENTER COURT · 2nd on
#531ATP
1351ELO
1360Clay ELO
18 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWWL
Diaz Acosta F.
6-3 6-2
Mcdonald N.
Diaz Acosta F.
662
Mcdonald N.
320

Facundo Diaz Acosta defeated Niels Mcdonald 6-3, 6-2 in the quarterfinals of the Braunschweig tournament on clay. Diaz Acosta hit 3 aces and 0 double faults, while Mcdonald had 1 ace and 7 double faults. Diaz Acosta won 79% of his first-serve points and converted 21% of break points, compared to Mcdonald's 60% and 33%, respectively; Diaz Acosta also secured 4 service breaks to Mcdonald's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
55%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
33%
Break points saved·Even
60%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.4
Double faults / match·Even
2.5
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 5). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Diaz Acosta F.95%
Mcdonald N.5%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Diaz Acosta F. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
8.9+309 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.1Clay Elo 1360
9.1Overall Elo 1680
ELO gap
0.9Overall Elo 1351
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
9.39 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.84 of last 10 on clay
9.07-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
100
78

Diaz Acosta F.: 16 days rest · Mcdonald N.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
22°CMainly clear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 57%

Draw