Katherine Sebov vs Tatjana Maria — Newport Round of 16

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
CAN
Katherine Sebov
#213WTA
1407ELO
1364Grass ELO
27 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 9 July 2026 ·
grass
Tatjana Maria
GER2
Tatjana Maria
#80WTA
1703ELO
1688Grass ELO
39 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWW
Sebov K.
3-6 3-6
Maria T.
Sebov K.
330
Maria T.
662

Tatjana Maria defeated Katherine Sebov 6-3, 6-3 in the Round of 16 at the Newport grass tournament. Maria converted all five of her break points, compared to Sebov's three conversions from nine opportunities. Maria won 79% of her first-serve points, while Sebov won 33%.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Sebov K.Maria T.
1st serve in·Clear edge
78%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
57%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
45%
Service points won·Even
55%
58%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Even
56%
56%
Aces / match·Dominant
0.8
4.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sebov K.Maria T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
51
2
Break points saved·Dominant
53
4
Break points won·Clear edge
83
70
Deciding sets·Dominant
64
3
Tiebreaks·
—
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Sebov K.13%
Maria T.87%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Maria T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sebov K.
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Maria T.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
0.9Grass Elo 1364
Surface ELO
9.1+324 Grass Elo edge
1.3Overall Elo 1407
ELO gap
8.7Overall Elo 1702
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.04 of last 7 on grass
Surface form
6.87 of last 10 on grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sebov K.Maria T.
Freshness·Clear edge
100
88

Sebov K.: 15 days rest · Maria T.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 79%

Draw