Marta Kostyuk vs Linda NoskovaWimbledon Semi-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Semi-final
#11WTA
2057ELO
1737Grass ELO
$3.5MYTD
$10MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 9 July 2026 ·
grass
Centre Court · 2nd on
#8WTA
1976ELO
1844Grass ELO
$6.2MYTD
$11MCAREER
21 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWWW
Kostyuk M.
4-6 4-6
Noskova L.
Kostyuk M.
440
Noskova L.
662

Linda Noskova defeated Marta Kostyuk in the Wimbledon semifinals, winning 6-4, 6-4 on the grass courts. Noskova hit one ace to Kostyuk's five, and both players made two double faults. Noskova converted 50% of her break points and broke Kostyuk's serve twice, while Kostyuk converted all her break points but only broke once.

Around the match

  • I have been working on my serve for a couple of years now. It has been a great help for me lately. Obviously on grass court or hard courts, you can use your serve as the most powerful tool.

    Noskova L.WTA Tennis
  • The feelings are incredible, like never before. This is what I'm playing tennis for — for these matches, for these big stages and big courts.

    Noskova L.WTA Tennis

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Linda Noskova edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-21MadridQFclayMarta Kostyuk7-6 6-0

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
41%
Break points saved·Even
62%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.4
6.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.1
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
86
92
Break points saved·Clear edge
72
86
Break points won·Slight edge
94
89
Deciding sets·Even
95
94
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
80
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Kostyuk M.40%
Noskova L.60%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Noskova L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.7Grass Elo 1737
Surface ELO
6.3+107 Grass Elo edge
6.0Overall Elo 2057
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1976
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
7.57 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.19 of last 10 on grass
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
5.7Won 62% in United Kingdom (21)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
66
81

Kostyuk M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d) · Noskova L.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
34°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 26%

Draw