Karolina Muchova vs Coco GauffWimbledon Semi-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Semi-final
#7WTA
2066ELO
1852Grass ELO
$4.5MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 9 July 2026 ·
grass
Centre Court · 1st on
#4WTA
2071ELO
1823Grass ELO
$4.1MYTD
$34MCAREER
22 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWWWW
Muchova K.
6-2 1-6 7-6
Gauff C.
Muchova K.
6172
Gauff C.
2661

Karolina Muchova defeated Coco Gauff in the Wimbledon semifinals, winning 6-2, 1-6, 7-6. The match saw Muchova and Gauff hit an equal number of aces, 3 each, and Muchova committed zero double faults compared to Gauff's 2. Both players converted 2 service breaks apiece, with Muchova converting 33% of break points and Gauff converting 15%.

Around the match

  • If you told me I would be in the semis of this tournament, I'd be, 'You're funny.' I'm confident in myself and the player that I am.

    Gauff C.WTA Tennis
  • One of the best in the world, in our sport. She gives you a lot of balls back. She has a lot of weapons. She is big fighter, which gives a lot of things to her game to make it awkward for me.

    Muchova K.WTA Tennis
  • It's a very special moment. This is one of the biggest tournaments with so much history. I'm incredibly glad and happy that I have a chance to play another final.

    Muchova K.WTA Tennis
  • At the end of the day, I left it all out there. It's just obviously points I want to make better decisions on. That's how you learn and become a better player.

    Gauff C.WTA Tennis

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

17
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-13StuttgartQFclayKarolina Muchova6-3 5-7 6-3
2026-03-17MiamiSFhardCoco Gauff6-1 6-1
2026-01-19Australian OpenR16hardCoco Gauff6-1 3-6 6-3
2025-01-04United CupSFhardCoco Gauff6-1 6-4
2024-12-27United CupSFhardCoco Gauff6-1 6-4
2024-09-25BeijingFhardCoco Gauff6-1 6-3
2023-08-28US OpenSFhardCoco Gauff6-4 7-5
2023-08-14CincinnatiFhardCoco Gauff6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
41%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
58%
Return points won·Even
44%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.5
2.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
6.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
92
94
Break points saved·Slight edge
91
81
Break points won·Clear edge
88
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
99
Tiebreaks·Even
99
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Muchova K.58%
Gauff C.42%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.4+29 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Grass Elo 1823
4.9Overall Elo 2066
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 2071
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
9.49 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.96 of last 10 on grass
10.09-match win streak
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
6.1Won 68% in United Kingdom (22)
Country comfort
6.3Won 71% in United Kingdom (28)
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
64

Gauff C.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 73 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
32°CClear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 31%

Draw