Adrian Mannarino vs Alexis GalarneauNewport Round of 16

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#52ATP
1673ELO
1653Grass ELO
$644kYTD
$15MCAREER
38 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLWLLW
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 9 July 2026 ·
grass
#185ATP
1593ELO
1538Grass ELO
$177kYTD
$837kCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWLWWLW
Mannarino A.
3-6 6-3 6-7
Galarneau A.
Mannarino A.
3661
Galarneau A.
6372

Alexis Galarneau defeated Adrian Mannarino in the Round of 16 at the Newport grass tournament. Galarneau won the match 6-3, 3-6, 7-6. The players were tied in double faults (4), break points converted percentage (67), and service breaks (4), while Galarneau had fewer aces (4) than Mannarino (7) and a slightly higher first-serve win percentage (78 vs 76).

Around the match

  • When you know the tournament is starting on Wednesday because of the weather, you know you're going to have to play every day. I'm actually surprised and pretty happy with my performance today. I was returning really well and serving pretty OK.

    Mannarino A.Yahoo Sports

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
35%
39%
Break points saved·Even
57%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.7
3.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.2
4.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 39). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
61
28
Break points saved·Clear edge
91
79
Break points won·Dominant
71
16
Deciding sets·Dominant
79
22
Tiebreaks·Dominant
15
61

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Mannarino A.73%
Galarneau A.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mannarino A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.4+114 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Grass Elo 1538
6.0Overall Elo 1673
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1593
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.76 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
95
100

Mannarino A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Galarneau A.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 75%

Draw