Daniel Rincon vs Sebastian Ofner — Braunschweig Round of 16

Braunschweig · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
ESP
Daniel Rincon
#206ATP
1522ELO
1469Clay ELO
23 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
clay
TENZER CENTER COURT · 3rd on
Sebastian Ofner
AUT5
Sebastian Ofner
#127ATP
1713ELO
1680Clay ELO
$349kYTD
$3.8MCAREER
30 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWLWLW
Rincon D.
3-6 7-5 6-3
Ofner S.
Rincon D.
3762
Ofner S.
6531

Daniel Rincon defeated Sebastian Ofner 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 in the Round of 16 at the Braunschweig clay tournament. Rincon and Ofner were even in aces, 5-5, and in break points converted, 25% each, but Rincon had fewer double faults, 2-5, and more service breaks, 3-2. Rincon won with a first-serve win percentage of 73%, slightly higher than Ofner's 70%.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Rincon D.Ofner S.
1st serve in·Even
59%
58%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
64%
76%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.9
8.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rincon D.Ofner S.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
41
66
Break points saved·Dominant
50
88
Break points won·Clear edge
34
46
Deciding sets·Slight edge
93
85
Tiebreaks·Dominant
16
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Rincon D.19%
Ofner S.81%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Ofner S. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rincon D.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Ofner S.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.4Clay Elo 1469
Surface ELO
7.6+211 Clay Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1522
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1713
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.17 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.85 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rincon D.Ofner S.
Freshness·Clear edge
100
79

Rincon D.: 15 days rest · Ofner S.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw