Ilia Simakin vs Lautaro MidonIasi Round of 16

Iasi · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#267ATP
1463ELO
1282Clay ELO
22 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#193ATP
1526ELO
1508Clay ELO
22 yrs · 180 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
Simakin I.
5-7 3-6
Midon L.
Simakin I.
530
Midon L.
762

Lautaro Midon advanced to the quarterfinals in Iasi, defeating Ilia Simakin 7-5, 6-3. Midon converted 50% of his break points and secured five service breaks, while Simakin converted 33% of his break points and secured two service breaks. Midon and Simakin each hit one ace, with Midon committing three double faults to Simakin's five.

Key context

  • Match story: Lautaro Midon closed it out in two sets, 7–5 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
57%
Return points won·Even
38%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
55%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.9
3.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
58
37
Break points saved·Dominant
87
28
Break points won·Dominant
26
63
Deciding sets·Clear edge
79
62
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
70
49

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Simakin I.28%
Midon L.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Midon L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.5Clay Elo 1322
Surface ELO
7.5+199 Clay Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1503
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1538
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.93 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
92
65

Simakin I.: 12 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Midon L.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 69 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°CRain
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 73%

Draw