Linda Noskova vs Elise MertensWimbledon Quarter-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Quarter-final
#8WTA
1976ELO
1844Grass ELO
$6.2MYTD
$11MCAREER
21 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
grass
No.1 Court · 1st on
#22WTA
1894ELO
1750Grass ELO
$2.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
30 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWLWL
Noskova L.
6-3 7-5
Mertens E.
Noskova L.
672
Mertens E.
350

Linda Noskova defeated Elise Mertens in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon, winning 6-3, 7-5 on the grass courts. Noskova hit 7 aces to Mertens' 4 and converted 18% of her break points, while Mertens converted none. Noskova won 79% of her first-serve points to Mertens' 71%, and she broke Mertens' serve twice.

Around the match

  • You do have to believe in yourself at some point that you can do it, that you can play against these big players and win these matches. I do not focus on results or rankings, I always want to improve as a player.

    Noskova L.WTA Tennis
  • I can use a lot of sides of my tennis. I started to feel comfortable on grass last year. It's good that you feel comfy on court.

    Noskova L.WTA Tennis

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Linda Noskova closed it out in two sets, 6–3 7–5.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.7
4.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
5.1
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
92
69
Break points saved·Clear edge
86
65
Break points won·Slight edge
89
97
Deciding sets·Dominant
94
63
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
71

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Noskova L.73%
Mertens E.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Noskova L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.6+127 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Grass Elo 1748
6.3Overall Elo 1996
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1891
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
9.09 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.57 of last 10 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
5.7Won 62% in United Kingdom (39)
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
81
85

Noskova L.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d) · Mertens E.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 40%

Draw