Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Adam WaltonNewport Round of 32

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#144ATP
1606ELO
1541Grass ELO
$243kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
grass
#98ATP
1703ELO
1565Grass ELO
$531kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLWWL
Mcdonald M.
1-6 3-6
Walton A.
Mcdonald M.
130
Walton A.
662

Adam Walton defeated Mackenzie McDonald 6-1, 6-3 in the Round of 32 at the Newport grass tournament. Walton hit 4 aces and 2 double faults, winning 84% of his first serves and converting 80% of break points. He broke McDonald's serve 4 times, while McDonald did not convert any of his break point chances.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
54%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Even
37%
35%
Break points saved·Even
60%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.7
6.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 39). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
29
40
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
92
Break points won·Dominant
73
8
Deciding sets·Dominant
7
87
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
10
2

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Mcdonald M.42%
Walton A.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Grass Elo 1541
Surface ELO
5.3+24 Grass Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1606
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1703
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.96 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
3.43 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
92
64

Mcdonald M.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Walton A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 71 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 70%

Draw