Alan Magadan vs Matias SotoBogota Round of 16

Bogota · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#561ATP
1274ELO
1238Clay ELO
25 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
clay
Court 1 · 1st on
#262ATP
1421ELO
1412Clay ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWL
Magadan A.
6-7 3-6
Soto M.
Magadan A.
630
Soto M.
762

Matias Soto defeated Alan Magadan 7-6, 6-3 in the Round of 16 at the Bogota clay court tournament. Soto and Magadan were evenly matched in service breaks, each securing one, and also had similar numbers of aces and double faults. Soto converted 33% of his break points, while Magadan converted 20%.

Key context

  • Match story: Matias Soto closed it out in two sets, 7–6 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
53%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Even
59%
62%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Even
57%
57%
Aces / match·Even
4.5
4.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.4
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Magadan A.22%
Soto M.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Soto M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.8Clay Elo 1238
Surface ELO
7.2+174 Clay Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1274
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1421
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
5.35 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
48
91

Magadan A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 101 games (7d) · Soto M.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
17°CDrizzle
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw