Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine Paolini — Wimbledon Quarter-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Quarter-final
Marta Kostyuk
UKR12
Marta Kostyuk
#11WTA
2057ELO
1737Grass ELO
$3.5MYTD
$10MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
grass
Centre Court · 1st on
Jasmine Paolini
ITA13
Jasmine Paolini
#15WTA
1905ELO
1748Grass ELO
$2.0MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLLWLWL
Kostyuk M.
6-3 6-2
Paolini J.
Kostyuk M.
662
Paolini J.
320

Marta Kostyuk defeated Jasmine Paolini in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon, winning 6-3, 6-2 on the grass courts. Kostyuk served effectively, hitting 3 aces and committing 3 double faults, while winning 91% of her first-serve points. She converted 50% of her break points and broke Paolini's serve 4 times en route to the victory.

Around the match

  • “I think I adapt really well. When I need to, I read well when I'm overdoing or not doing enough. I feel like today you could see clearly how I was trying to change pace.”

    Kostyuk M.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “This year was challenging because maybe I had too many expectations, or I lost two matches I wasn't expect to lose, then some doubts came into my mind. Hopefully I can come back in the top 10.”

    Paolini J.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-08-14CincinnatiR64hardJasmine Paolini6-2 6-1
2022-10-10Cluj NapocaR32hardJasmine Paolini5-7 6-3 6-4
2022-08-13CincinnatiQ32hardMarta Kostyuk6-2 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Kostyuk M.Paolini J.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
57%
Return points won·Even
48%
45%
Break points saved·Even
62%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.5
2.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.1
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Kostyuk M.Paolini J.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
86
77
Break points saved·Dominant
72
46
Break points won·Even
94
96
Deciding sets·Even
95
95
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
80
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Kostyuk M.68%
Paolini J.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kostyuk M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kostyuk M.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Paolini J.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Grass Elo 1737
Surface ELO
5.4+33 Grass Elo edge
6.7Overall Elo 2057
ELO gap
3.3Overall Elo 1922
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.76 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.67 of last 10 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
5.6Won 60% in United Kingdom (20)
Country comfort
5.7Won 62% in United Kingdom (21)
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Kostyuk M.Paolini J.
Freshness·
66
—

Kostyuk M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 36%

Draw