Andre Ilagan vs Rio NoguchiNewport Round of 32

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#210ATP
1543ELO
1472Grass ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
grass
#213ATP
1532ELO
1398Grass ELO
27 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWLL
Ilagan A.
7-5 3-6 6-3
Noguchi R.
Ilagan A.
7362
Noguchi R.
5631

Andre Ilagan defeated Rio Noguchi in the Round of 32 at the Newport grass tournament. The match ended with a score of 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 in favor of Ilagan. Both players converted four service breaks, with Ilagan having a higher percentage of break points converted and first-serve win percentage compared to Noguchi.

Key context

  • Match story: Andre Ilagan closed it out in three sets, 7–5 3–6 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
48%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
39%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
57%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.2
1.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
37
23
Break points saved·Dominant
76
25
Break points won·Slight edge
17
26
Deciding sets·Slight edge
71
82
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
14
4

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Ilagan A.61%
Noguchi R.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Ilagan A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+74 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Grass Elo 1398
5.1Overall Elo 1543
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1532
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
Surface form
4.55 of last 10 on grass
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Hard → Grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
61
77

Ilagan A.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d) · Noguchi R.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 61%

Draw