Andrea Pellegrino vs Raul BrancaccioTrieste Round of 16

Trieste · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#135ATP
1674ELO
1654Clay ELO
$320kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWLWWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 4 · 4th on
#232ATP
1492ELO
1465Clay ELO
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLLWLW
Pellegrino A.
6-3 4-6 3-6
Brancaccio R.
Pellegrino A.
6431
Brancaccio R.
3662

Raul Brancaccio defeated Andrea Pellegrino in the Round of 16 at the Trieste tournament on clay, winning 3-6, 6-4, 6-3. Brancaccio served 8 aces to Pellegrino's 3 and converted 4 service breaks to Pellegrino's 3. Brancaccio won 69% of his first-serve points, while Pellegrino won 66%.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-05-08Rome MastersQ1clayAndrea Pellegrino6-3 0-6 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Even
61%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.6
2.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
55
11
Break points saved·Clear edge
67
49
Break points won·Clear edge
35
19
Deciding sets·Dominant
82
9
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
73
51

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Pellegrino A.75%
Brancaccio R.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pellegrino A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.4+189 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Clay Elo 1465
7.3Overall Elo 1674
ELO gap
2.7Overall Elo 1492
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
7.47 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.54 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
78
84

Pellegrino A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Brancaccio R.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
29°CPartly cloudy
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 39%

Draw