Miguel Damas vs Gilles Arnaud BaillyLiege Round of 16

Liege · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#302ATP
1398ELO
1370Clay ELO
26 yrs · 208 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTRE COURT · 4th on
#230ATP
1476ELO
1438Clay ELO
20 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLW
Damas M.
7-5 2-6 6-2
Arnaud Bailly G.
Damas M.
7262
Arnaud Bailly G.
5621

Miguel Damas advanced to the quarterfinals of the Liege tournament, defeating Gilles Arnaud Bailly in the Round of 16. The match was decided in three sets, with Damas winning 7-5, 2-6, 6-2.

Key context

  • Match story: Miguel Damas closed it out in three sets, 7–5 2–6 6–2.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Even
56%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
58%
Aces / match·Even
1.2
1.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.7
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Damas M.31%
Arnaud Bailly G.69%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Arnaud Bailly G. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Clay Elo 1370
Surface ELO
5.9+69 Clay Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1398
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1476
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.42 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.94 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
88
100

Damas M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Arnaud Bailly G.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
24°CPartly cloudy
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw