Emiliana Arango vs Paula Badosa — Bastad Round of 16

Bastad · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
Emiliana Arango
COL6
Emiliana Arango
#95WTA
1624ELO
1553Clay ELO
25 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWLLW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
clay
Paula Badosa
ESP
Paula Badosa
#84WTA
1780ELO
1684Clay ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWWW
Arango E.
3-6 2-6
Badosa P.
Arango E.
320
Badosa P.
662

Paula Badosa defeated Emiliana Arango 6-3, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at Bastad. Badosa hit 7 double faults and converted 75% of her break points, while Arango hit 2 aces and converted 12% of her break points. Badosa won 3 service breaks to Arango's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Arango E.Badosa P.
1st serve in·Clear edge
71%
55%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
57%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
41%
Service points won·Even
53%
56%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Even
54%
54%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.0
4.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.3
7.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Arango E.Badosa P.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
23
90
Break points saved·Dominant
10
84
Break points won·Dominant
35
95
Deciding sets·Dominant
68
93
Tiebreaks·
—
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Arango E.12%
Badosa P.88%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Badosa P. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Arango E.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Badosa P.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Clay Elo 1539
Surface ELO
6.8+145 Clay Elo edge
2.7Overall Elo 1595
ELO gap
7.3Overall Elo 1779
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.14 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.15 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Arango E.Badosa P.
Freshness·
67
—

Arango E.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 91 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
21°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 68%

Draw