Lisa Zaar vs Varvara Lepchenko — Bastad Round of 32

Bastad · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

SWE

Lisa Zaar

#339WTA

1527ELO

1499Clay ELO

26 yrs

Last 10 · pre-match

WLWWLLLLLW

1 — 2

Sets

Tuesday, 7 July 2026 · 18:40

clay

USA

Varvara Lepchenko

#184WTA

1578ELO

1533Clay ELO

40 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLLWLWLLWL

Zaar L.

4-6 6-4 6-7

Lepchenko V.

Zaar L.

4661

Lepchenko V.

6472

Varvara Lepchenko defeated Lisa Zaar in the Round of 32 at Bastad, prevailing 6-4, 4-6, 7-6 on clay. Lepchenko hit 2 aces and 3 double faults, winning 54% of her first serves and converting 40% of break points. The match saw 8 service breaks for each player.

Key context

Match story: Varvara Lepchenko edged Lisa Zaar in three tight sets (6–4 4–6 7–6).

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Zaar L.serving45% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Lepchenko V.

Lepchenko V.serving25% hold

wins 40% of points on serve vs Zaar L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Zaar L.Lepchenko V.

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Serve

—

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season

Zaar L.Lepchenko V.

1st serve in·Clear edge

80%

67%

1st serve points won·Even

57%

61%

2nd serve points won·Even

42%

44%

Service points won·Even

54%

55%

Return points won·Slight edge

53%

43%

Break points saved·Even

56%

55%

Aces / match·Clear edge

0.1

3.0

Double faults / match·Slight edge

1.9

2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC

Zaar L.23%

Lepchenko V.77%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Lepchenko V. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Zaar L.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Lepchenko V.

4.7

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

4.4Clay Elo 1499

Surface ELO

5.6+44 Clay Elo edge

4.2Overall Elo 1527

ELO gap

5.8Overall Elo 1587

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.36 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

3.43 of last 10 on clay

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

Surface transition

3.0Grass → Clay

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Zaar L.Lepchenko V.

Freshness·

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Lepchenko V.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Slowlow bounce, long rallies

SlowFast

Weather

17°CClear

Wind 40 km/hHumidity 59%

Lisa Zaar vs Varvara Lepchenko — Bastad Round of 32

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Serve & return on clay

Statistics

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return

Serve & return on clay